Methodology
Polaris publishes full methodology for every likely-voter model it trains. Each link below opens the AAPOR-style disclosure page for that model.
AK 2024 GENR
- AK 2024 General — logit AUC 0.8548 · Brier 0.1523
- AK 2024 General — xgboost AUC 0.8890 · Brier 0.1328
AK 2024 PRIM
- AK 2024 Primary — logit AUC 0.8892 · Brier 0.0939
- AK 2024 Primary — xgboost AUC 0.9232 · Brier 0.0750